Current medium-range ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows substantial spread in overnight lows for New York City on May 21, with possible Central Park minimums ranging from the upper 40s under clear, calm conditions to the mid-60s amid stronger southerly flow and increased cloud cover. This uncertainty at a four-day lead time drives the near-even market split between 68°F or higher and 49°F or below, as traders weigh radiative cooling potential against evolving Atlantic moisture and jet-stream positioning. Historical mid-May climatology centers around 53–55°F, but recent model runs indicate possible deviations tied to the strength of any incoming high-pressure ridge. Fresh National Weather Service updates and updated ensemble means expected within the next 48 hours should tighten the distribution and shift probabilities accordingly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on May 21?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 21?
68°F or higher 41%
49°F or below 32%
56-57°F 27%
54-55°F 21%
NOWE
NOWE
May 21, 2026
49°F or below
32%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
8%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
6%
68°F or higher
41%
68°F or higher 41%
49°F or below 32%
56-57°F 27%
54-55°F 21%
NOWE
NOWE
May 21, 2026
49°F or below
$18 Wol.
32%
50-51°F
$0 Wol.
6%
52-53°F
$0 Wol.
8%
54-55°F
$0 Wol.
21%
56-57°F
$0 Wol.
27%
58-59°F
$0 Wol.
19%
60-61°F
$0 Wol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Wol.
18%
64-65°F
$0 Wol.
14%
66-67°F
$0 Wol.
6%
68°F or higher
$10 Wol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current medium-range ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows substantial spread in overnight lows for New York City on May 21, with possible Central Park minimums ranging from the upper 40s under clear, calm conditions to the mid-60s amid stronger southerly flow and increased cloud cover. This uncertainty at a four-day lead time drives the near-even market split between 68°F or higher and 49°F or below, as traders weigh radiative cooling potential against evolving Atlantic moisture and jet-stream positioning. Historical mid-May climatology centers around 53–55°F, but recent model runs indicate possible deviations tied to the strength of any incoming high-pressure ridge. Fresh National Weather Service updates and updated ensemble means expected within the next 48 hours should tighten the distribution and shift probabilities accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$28Data zakończenia
May 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current medium-range ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows substantial spread in overnight lows for New York City on May 21, with possible Central Park minimums ranging from the upper 40s under clear, calm conditions to the mid-60s amid stronger southerly flow and increased cloud cover. This uncertainty at a four-day lead time drives the near-even market split between 68°F or higher and 49°F or below, as traders weigh radiative cooling potential against evolving Atlantic moisture and jet-stream positioning. Historical mid-May climatology centers around 53–55°F, but recent model runs indicate possible deviations tied to the strength of any incoming high-pressure ridge. Fresh National Weather Service updates and updated ensemble means expected within the next 48 hours should tighten the distribution and shift probabilities accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$28Data zakończenia
May 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGACurrent medium-range ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF shows substantial spread in overnight lows for New York City on May 21, with possible Central Park minimums ranging from the upper 40s under clear, calm conditions to the mid-60s amid stronger southerly flow and increased cloud cover. This uncertainty at a four-day lead time drives the near-even market split between 68°F or higher and 49°F or below, as traders weigh radiative cooling potential against evolving Atlantic moisture and jet-stream positioning. Historical mid-May climatology centers around 53–55°F, but recent model runs indicate possible deviations tied to the strength of any incoming high-pressure ridge. Fresh National Weather Service updates and updated ensemble means expected within the next 48 hours should tighten the distribution and shift probabilities accordingly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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