Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?
27°C 32%
28°C 31%
29°C 12%
26°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
10%
26°C
11%
27°C
32%
28°C
31%
29°C
12%
30°C
8%
31°C or higher
3%
27°C 32%
28°C 31%
29°C 12%
26°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$636 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$408 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$649 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$75 Wol.
1%
25°C
$520 Wol.
10%
26°C
$211 Wol.
11%
27°C
$0 Wol.
32%
28°C
$11 Wol.
31%
29°C
$99 Wol.
12%
30°C
$2 Wol.
8%
31°C or higher
$25 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,636Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$2,636Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent Hong Kong Observatory model consensus and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS project a daily maximum of 27–28 °C for May 18, reflecting typical mid-May subtropical monsoon conditions with elevated humidity near 80 %, scattered showers, and southerly flow from the South China Sea that curbs solar heating. These factors create a narrow temperature band, explaining the near-even trader split between the two leading outcomes and the steep drop-off beyond 29 °C. Historical climatology for the period shows average highs of 28–29 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and precipitation this week introduce realistic downside risk to 26 °C. Updated forecast runs and official HKO briefings expected within 48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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