A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 86%
27°C 14%
26°C 1.7%
18°C or below <1%
NOWE
$55,738 Wol.
NOWE
$55,738 Wol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
14%
28°C or higher
86%
28°C or higher 86%
27°C 14%
26°C 1.7%
18°C or below <1%
NOWE
$55,738 Wol.
NOWE
$55,738 Wol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$3,411 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$20,321 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$7,186 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$6,165 Wol.
2%
27°C
$4,162 Wol.
14%
28°C or higher
$5,714 Wol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$55,738Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$55,738Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, is positioning traders to favor a daily high of 28°C or higher in Tokyo on May 18 at 79% implied probability. Clear skies combined with light southerly flow and strong afternoon solar insolation are expected to drive surface heating well above the seasonal May average of 22–25°C. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak temperatures, with 27°C capturing the remaining meaningful share at 20.5%. Historical analogs for mid-May under similar synoptic patterns support occasional excursions into the upper 20s, though any late-day cloud development or wind shift could cap the maximum near the next-closest outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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