Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 5–7°C for London's lowest temperature on May 15, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Heathrow—the probable measurement site—showing an overnight minimum of 6–7°C amid cloudy skies and light northerly breezes, with BBC Weather aligning at 6°C low. This below-average outlook (typical mid-May lows ~9°C) stems from recent cool air advection following light showers on May 14, limiting daytime highs to 14–15°C and curbing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles on overnight cloud cover and wind minima, where thinner clouds could enable radiational cooling to 5°C, while persistent overcast favors 7°C or higher. New forecast updates expected this afternoon from the Met Office may refine probabilities amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on May 15?
Lowest temperature in London on May 15?
6°C 34%
7°C 27%
8°C 11%
5°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
May 15, 2026
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
8%
6°C
34%
7°C
31%
8°C
11%
9°C or higher
1%
6°C 34%
7°C 27%
8°C 11%
5°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
May 15, 2026
-1°C or below
$583 Wol.
<1%
0°C
$10 Wol.
1%
1°C
$21 Wol.
1%
2°C
$21 Wol.
1%
3°C
$218 Wol.
1%
4°C
$18 Wol.
3%
5°C
$139 Wol.
8%
6°C
$20 Wol.
34%
7°C
$46 Wol.
31%
8°C
$31 Wol.
11%
9°C or higher
$461 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 5–7°C for London's lowest temperature on May 15, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Heathrow—the probable measurement site—showing an overnight minimum of 6–7°C amid cloudy skies and light northerly breezes, with BBC Weather aligning at 6°C low. This below-average outlook (typical mid-May lows ~9°C) stems from recent cool air advection following light showers on May 14, limiting daytime highs to 14–15°C and curbing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles on overnight cloud cover and wind minima, where thinner clouds could enable radiational cooling to 5°C, while persistent overcast favors 7°C or higher. New forecast updates expected this afternoon from the Met Office may refine probabilities amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,568Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 5–7°C for London's lowest temperature on May 15, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Heathrow—the probable measurement site—showing an overnight minimum of 6–7°C amid cloudy skies and light northerly breezes, with BBC Weather aligning at 6°C low. This below-average outlook (typical mid-May lows ~9°C) stems from recent cool air advection following light showers on May 14, limiting daytime highs to 14–15°C and curbing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles on overnight cloud cover and wind minima, where thinner clouds could enable radiational cooling to 5°C, while persistent overcast favors 7°C or higher. New forecast updates expected this afternoon from the Met Office may refine probabilities amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,568Data zakończenia
May 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 5–7°C for London's lowest temperature on May 15, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Heathrow—the probable measurement site—showing an overnight minimum of 6–7°C amid cloudy skies and light northerly breezes, with BBC Weather aligning at 6°C low. This below-average outlook (typical mid-May lows ~9°C) stems from recent cool air advection following light showers on May 14, limiting daytime highs to 14–15°C and curbing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles on overnight cloud cover and wind minima, where thinner clouds could enable radiational cooling to 5°C, while persistent overcast favors 7°C or higher. New forecast updates expected this afternoon from the Met Office may refine probabilities amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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