Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because Representatives Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick plus Governor Mills show no signs of imminent departure from office. None have announced resignations, and no ethics investigations, health developments, or primary challenges have surfaced in the past month that would force exits before May 31. All four continue routine legislative and executive activity without withdrawal statements or procedural moves that historically precede short-notice vacancies. Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous departures of multiple sitting officials on this timeline require extraordinary catalysts absent here, leaving the implied probability aligned with the low base rate for such coordinated, rapid turnover.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$27,623 Wol.
$27,623 Wol.
May 31, 2026
$27,623 Wol.
$27,623 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because Representatives Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick plus Governor Mills show no signs of imminent departure from office. None have announced resignations, and no ethics investigations, health developments, or primary challenges have surfaced in the past month that would force exits before May 31. All four continue routine legislative and executive activity without withdrawal statements or procedural moves that historically precede short-notice vacancies. Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous departures of multiple sitting officials on this timeline require extraordinary catalysts absent here, leaving the implied probability aligned with the low base rate for such coordinated, rapid turnover.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Wolumen
$27,623Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because Representatives Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick plus Governor Mills show no signs of imminent departure from office. None have announced resignations, and no ethics investigations, health developments, or primary challenges have surfaced in the past month that would force exits before May 31. All four continue routine legislative and executive activity without withdrawal statements or procedural moves that historically precede short-notice vacancies. Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous departures of multiple sitting officials on this timeline require extraordinary catalysts absent here, leaving the implied probability aligned with the low base rate for such coordinated, rapid turnover.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$27,623Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because Representatives Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick plus Governor Mills show no signs of imminent departure from office. None have announced resignations, and no ethics investigations, health developments, or primary challenges have surfaced in the past month that would force exits before May 31. All four continue routine legislative and executive activity without withdrawal statements or procedural moves that historically precede short-notice vacancies. Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous departures of multiple sitting officials on this timeline require extraordinary catalysts absent here, leaving the implied probability aligned with the low base rate for such coordinated, rapid turnover.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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