Stalled US-Iran negotiations over core nuclear demands explain the 76.5% implied probability against a comprehensive agreement by June 30. Recent rounds of talks, including those mediated in Islamabad and Rome, have reached deadlock after Iran resisted upfront concessions on its uranium stockpile, enrichment levels, and facility closures, instead proposing to defer these issues until after a permanent ceasefire. US negotiators, led by figures tied to the Trump administration, continue to insist on verifiable curbs such as suspension of enrichment for up to 20 years and handover of highly enriched material before broader sanctions relief or Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits but reject timelines or terms seen as compromising sovereignty, with public statements highlighting the impasse as of mid-May. The tight resolution window leaves little room for bridging gaps before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUmowa nuklearna USA-Iran do 30 czerwca?
Umowa nuklearna USA-Iran do 30 czerwca?
Tak
$1,858,627 Wol.
$1,858,627 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Tak
$1,858,627 Wol.
$1,858,627 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran negotiations over core nuclear demands explain the 76.5% implied probability against a comprehensive agreement by June 30. Recent rounds of talks, including those mediated in Islamabad and Rome, have reached deadlock after Iran resisted upfront concessions on its uranium stockpile, enrichment levels, and facility closures, instead proposing to defer these issues until after a permanent ceasefire. US negotiators, led by figures tied to the Trump administration, continue to insist on verifiable curbs such as suspension of enrichment for up to 20 years and handover of highly enriched material before broader sanctions relief or Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits but reject timelines or terms seen as compromising sovereignty, with public statements highlighting the impasse as of mid-May. The tight resolution window leaves little room for bridging gaps before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,858,627Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Stalled US-Iran negotiations over core nuclear demands explain the 76.5% implied probability against a comprehensive agreement by June 30. Recent rounds of talks, including those mediated in Islamabad and Rome, have reached deadlock after Iran resisted upfront concessions on its uranium stockpile, enrichment levels, and facility closures, instead proposing to defer these issues until after a permanent ceasefire. US negotiators, led by figures tied to the Trump administration, continue to insist on verifiable curbs such as suspension of enrichment for up to 20 years and handover of highly enriched material before broader sanctions relief or Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits but reject timelines or terms seen as compromising sovereignty, with public statements highlighting the impasse as of mid-May. The tight resolution window leaves little room for bridging gaps before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$1,858,627Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran negotiations over core nuclear demands explain the 76.5% implied probability against a comprehensive agreement by June 30. Recent rounds of talks, including those mediated in Islamabad and Rome, have reached deadlock after Iran resisted upfront concessions on its uranium stockpile, enrichment levels, and facility closures, instead proposing to defer these issues until after a permanent ceasefire. US negotiators, led by figures tied to the Trump administration, continue to insist on verifiable curbs such as suspension of enrichment for up to 20 years and handover of highly enriched material before broader sanctions relief or Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iranian officials have signaled openness to limits but reject timelines or terms seen as compromising sovereignty, with public statements highlighting the impasse as of mid-May. The tight resolution window leaves little room for bridging gaps before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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