Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts underpin trader positioning around the 800–900 billion range for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 annual figure settled at 901.5 billion, little changed from the prior year, as a modest widening in the goods shortfall was offset by stronger services exports. Higher tariffs implemented from February 2025 raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, while monthly deficits through April 2026 have run near 56 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate continued moderation in the deficit as a share of GDP through tariff effects and slower import growth, though broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment and fiscal balances continue to influence the overall level. Ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations and enforcement actions add further uncertainty within the current calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$21,256 Wol.
$21,256 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
37%
900B–1T
20%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
4%
$21,256 Wol.
$21,256 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,808 Wol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Wol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Wol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Wol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Wol.
37%
900B–1T
$984 Wol.
20%
1T–1.1T
$447 Wol.
4%
1.1T+
$635 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts underpin trader positioning around the 800–900 billion range for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 annual figure settled at 901.5 billion, little changed from the prior year, as a modest widening in the goods shortfall was offset by stronger services exports. Higher tariffs implemented from February 2025 raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, while monthly deficits through April 2026 have run near 56 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate continued moderation in the deficit as a share of GDP through tariff effects and slower import growth, though broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment and fiscal balances continue to influence the overall level. Ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations and enforcement actions add further uncertainty within the current calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,256Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts underpin trader positioning around the 800–900 billion range for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 annual figure settled at 901.5 billion, little changed from the prior year, as a modest widening in the goods shortfall was offset by stronger services exports. Higher tariffs implemented from February 2025 raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, while monthly deficits through April 2026 have run near 56 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate continued moderation in the deficit as a share of GDP through tariff effects and slower import growth, though broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment and fiscal balances continue to influence the overall level. Ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations and enforcement actions add further uncertainty within the current calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,256Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts underpin trader positioning around the 800–900 billion range for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit. The 2025 annual figure settled at 901.5 billion, little changed from the prior year, as a modest widening in the goods shortfall was offset by stronger services exports. Higher tariffs implemented from February 2025 raised import costs and prompted supply-chain adjustments, while monthly deficits through April 2026 have run near 56 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate continued moderation in the deficit as a share of GDP through tariff effects and slower import growth, though broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment and fiscal balances continue to influence the overall level. Ongoing reciprocal trade negotiations and enforcement actions add further uncertainty within the current calendar year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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