Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have curbed import growth while supporting relative export resilience, driving the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit sharply lower on a year-to-date basis through May 2026. The deficit narrowed 40.6 percent from the comparable 2025 period amid higher exports and reduced imports, even as the May monthly gap widened to $77.6 billion. With the full-year 2025 deficit at $901.5 billion, market-implied odds favor an 800–900 billion outcome at 47.5 percent, reflecting trader expectations that tariff effects and subdued import demand will keep the annual total near recent levels despite monthly volatility and ongoing policy uncertainty. Key upcoming data releases will further shape these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$23,832 Wol.
$23,832 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
31%
800–900B
47%
900B–1T
19%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$23,832 Wol.
$23,832 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,833 Wol.
4%
500–600B
$433 Wol.
5%
600–700B
$533 Wol.
9%
700–800B
$659 Wol.
31%
800–900B
$1,499 Wol.
47%
900B–1T
$1,340 Wol.
19%
1T–1.1T
$1,442 Wol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,093 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have curbed import growth while supporting relative export resilience, driving the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit sharply lower on a year-to-date basis through May 2026. The deficit narrowed 40.6 percent from the comparable 2025 period amid higher exports and reduced imports, even as the May monthly gap widened to $77.6 billion. With the full-year 2025 deficit at $901.5 billion, market-implied odds favor an 800–900 billion outcome at 47.5 percent, reflecting trader expectations that tariff effects and subdued import demand will keep the annual total near recent levels despite monthly volatility and ongoing policy uncertainty. Key upcoming data releases will further shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$23,832Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have curbed import growth while supporting relative export resilience, driving the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit sharply lower on a year-to-date basis through May 2026. The deficit narrowed 40.6 percent from the comparable 2025 period amid higher exports and reduced imports, even as the May monthly gap widened to $77.6 billion. With the full-year 2025 deficit at $901.5 billion, market-implied odds favor an 800–900 billion outcome at 47.5 percent, reflecting trader expectations that tariff effects and subdued import demand will keep the annual total near recent levels despite monthly volatility and ongoing policy uncertainty. Key upcoming data releases will further shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Wolumen
$23,832Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have curbed import growth while supporting relative export resilience, driving the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit sharply lower on a year-to-date basis through May 2026. The deficit narrowed 40.6 percent from the comparable 2025 period amid higher exports and reduced imports, even as the May monthly gap widened to $77.6 billion. With the full-year 2025 deficit at $901.5 billion, market-implied odds favor an 800–900 billion outcome at 47.5 percent, reflecting trader expectations that tariff effects and subdued import demand will keep the annual total near recent levels despite monthly volatility and ongoing policy uncertainty. Key upcoming data releases will further shape these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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