Diplomatic momentum toward additional recognitions of Somaliland has slowed considerably since Israel’s December 2025 move, the first by a UN member state. Strong opposition from Somalia, the African Union, and regional actors has reinforced the prevailing emphasis on territorial integrity. Although the United Arab Emirates reportedly launched targeted diplomatic outreach in early May 2026 to encourage recognition by several countries, any such steps would require formal announcements and bilateral agreements that typically unfold over months rather than weeks. With the June 30 deadline approaching, traders assign a high probability to no further sovereign recognitions occurring in the short window that remains.