No at 73% reflects the low annual odds of a 5-kiloton airburst or impact, consistent with historical rates of roughly one such event every few years amid continuous NASA CNEOS monitoring that identifies no threatening near-Earth objects for 2026. Small NEOs detected this year, including 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, have passed safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles with refined orbits ruling out collision risk. Ongoing Sentry and Scout systems track thousands of objects without projecting any 5kt-scale strikes, while frequent smaller fireballs and meteor showers like the Perseids produce far lower energies. Remaining uncertainty stems from undetected small objects or late discoveries, though improved surveys reduce that likelihood through the year's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
$312,416 Vol.
$312,416 Vol.
Sim
$312,416 Vol.
$312,416 Vol.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No at 73% reflects the low annual odds of a 5-kiloton airburst or impact, consistent with historical rates of roughly one such event every few years amid continuous NASA CNEOS monitoring that identifies no threatening near-Earth objects for 2026. Small NEOs detected this year, including 2026 JH2 and 2026 PK, have passed safely at distances from tens of thousands to millions of miles with refined orbits ruling out collision risk. Ongoing Sentry and Scout systems track thousands of objects without projecting any 5kt-scale strikes, while frequent smaller fireballs and meteor showers like the Perseids produce far lower energies. Remaining uncertainty stems from undetected small objects or late discoveries, though improved surveys reduce that likelihood through the year's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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