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icon for Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?
Eleições·Espanha

Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?

icon for Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?
Eleições·Espanha

Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?

Sim

34% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

34% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volume
$3,308
Data de Término
17 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volume
$3,308
Data de Término
17 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eleições na Andaluzia: Maioria Absoluta do PP?" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?" is "Eleições na Andaluzia: Maioria Absoluta do PP?" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição da Andaluzia: PP Maioria Absoluta?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.