California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
3%
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,783 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,763Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,763Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, features a Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and has long favored Democratic candidates. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, locking in the party outcome. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration (roughly 64% Democratic) and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points. Trader consensus at 98.2% for Democrats versus under 3% for Republicans aligns with this structural reality. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or unforeseen disqualification, neither of which has emerged in recent cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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