Legal barriers from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has ruled the 2024 amnesty law inapplicable to Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges, remain the dominant force keeping the “No” outcome at roughly 74.5% implied probability. An EU Court of Justice decision in July 2026 upheld the amnesty framework in principle but left his arrest warrant intact pending a Spanish Constitutional Court ruling expected in October. The brief 2024 Barcelona appearance underscored the risks without clearing the path for a sustained return. With limited time left in the calendar year, traders view judicial friction and Madrid’s political stance as the decisive swing factors that could still shift sentiment before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado26% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
26% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Legal barriers from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has ruled the 2024 amnesty law inapplicable to Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges, remain the dominant force keeping the “No” outcome at roughly 74.5% implied probability. An EU Court of Justice decision in July 2026 upheld the amnesty framework in principle but left his arrest warrant intact pending a Spanish Constitutional Court ruling expected in October. The brief 2024 Barcelona appearance underscored the risks without clearing the path for a sustained return. With limited time left in the calendar year, traders view judicial friction and Madrid’s political stance as the decisive swing factors that could still shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,845Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Legal barriers from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has ruled the 2024 amnesty law inapplicable to Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges, remain the dominant force keeping the “No” outcome at roughly 74.5% implied probability. An EU Court of Justice decision in July 2026 upheld the amnesty framework in principle but left his arrest warrant intact pending a Spanish Constitutional Court ruling expected in October. The brief 2024 Barcelona appearance underscored the risks without clearing the path for a sustained return. With limited time left in the calendar year, traders view judicial friction and Madrid’s political stance as the decisive swing factors that could still shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Volume
$1,845Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legal barriers from Spain’s Supreme Court, which has ruled the 2024 amnesty law inapplicable to Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges, remain the dominant force keeping the “No” outcome at roughly 74.5% implied probability. An EU Court of Justice decision in July 2026 upheld the amnesty framework in principle but left his arrest warrant intact pending a Spanish Constitutional Court ruling expected in October. The brief 2024 Barcelona appearance underscored the risks without clearing the path for a sustained return. With limited time left in the calendar year, traders view judicial friction and Madrid’s political stance as the decisive swing factors that could still shift sentiment before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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