President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current constitutional term runs through 2028, with no scheduled presidential election until May of that year and no formal announcement of resignation or incapacity. Recent months have shown continued active governance, including his January declaration of 2026 as a “year of reform” focused on legislative and economic measures, diplomatic engagement at the Antalya Forum, and parliamentary steps advancing the Kurdish peace process. Opposition arrests and domestic political consolidation have further stabilized the ruling coalition’s position. Traders assess these factors—combined with the absence of health-related or succession-triggering developments—as placing low probability on an exit by December 31, 2026, reflecting the structural barriers and sustained control that would be required for any departure well before term limits.