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icon for Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?
Política·Rússia

Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?

icon for Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?
Política·Rússia

Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?

<35 86%

35–44 12.3%

45–54 2.6%

75–84 <1%

Polymarket

$27,356 Vol.

<35 86%

35–44 12.3%

45–54 2.6%

75–84 <1%

Polymarket

$27,356 Vol.

<35

$11,020 Vol.

86%

35–44

$7,295 Vol.

12%

45–54

$1,932 Vol.

3%

55–64

$1,876 Vol.

1%

65–74

$1,544 Vol.

<1%

75–84

$1,701 Vol.

1%

85+

$1,987 Vol.

1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding 15–16 seats after clearing the threshold in 2021 with 5.3 percent of the party-list vote. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VCIOM place the party at 8–11 percent, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16 percent among decided voters; even the upper end projects roughly 20–30 proportional seats plus limited single-mandate gains. The party has fielded candidates in only 83 single-member districts and operates within Russia’s managed multiparty system, where United Russia dominates both list and district contests. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a modest potential boost, yet no developments have altered the structural ceiling that keeps most trader consensus below 35 total seats.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$27,356
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding 15–16 seats after clearing the threshold in 2021 with 5.3 percent of the party-list vote. Recent state-affiliated polls from FOM and VCIOM place the party at 8–11 percent, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–16 percent among decided voters; even the upper end projects roughly 20–30 proportional seats plus limited single-mandate gains. The party has fielded candidates in only 83 single-member districts and operates within Russia’s managed multiparty system, where United Russia dominates both list and district contests. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot offers a modest potential boost, yet no developments have altered the structural ceiling that keeps most trader consensus below 35 total seats.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$27,356
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<35" at 86%, followed by "35–44" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?" has generated $27.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?" is "<35" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35–44" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos assentos o New People (NL) ganhará nas próximas eleições legislativas russas?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.