Iran’s post-war leadership transition under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated power through IRGC dominance, reducing prospects for a disruptive coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, Iranian officials have prioritized military reconstitution, Strait of Hormuz control, and negotiations with the United States, with recent statements emphasizing confidence-building measures over internal upheaval. Factional tensions between hardliners and moderates persist but have not escalated into verifiable challenges against the current structure. Trader consensus reflects this stabilization, as primary sources show no major leadership purges or uprisings in the past month that would signal an imminent attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,128,103 Vol.
$1,128,103 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$1,128,103 Vol.
$1,128,103 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated power through IRGC dominance, reducing prospects for a disruptive coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, Iranian officials have prioritized military reconstitution, Strait of Hormuz control, and negotiations with the United States, with recent statements emphasizing confidence-building measures over internal upheaval. Factional tensions between hardliners and moderates persist but have not escalated into verifiable challenges against the current structure. Trader consensus reflects this stabilization, as primary sources show no major leadership purges or uprisings in the past month that would signal an imminent attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,128,103Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated power through IRGC dominance, reducing prospects for a disruptive coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, Iranian officials have prioritized military reconstitution, Strait of Hormuz control, and negotiations with the United States, with recent statements emphasizing confidence-building measures over internal upheaval. Factional tensions between hardliners and moderates persist but have not escalated into verifiable challenges against the current structure. Trader consensus reflects this stabilization, as primary sources show no major leadership purges or uprisings in the past month that would signal an imminent attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,128,103Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war leadership transition under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated power through IRGC dominance, reducing prospects for a disruptive coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ali Khamenei and the subsequent ceasefire, Iranian officials have prioritized military reconstitution, Strait of Hormuz control, and negotiations with the United States, with recent statements emphasizing confidence-building measures over internal upheaval. Factional tensions between hardliners and moderates persist but have not escalated into verifiable challenges against the current structure. Trader consensus reflects this stabilization, as primary sources show no major leadership purges or uprisings in the past month that would signal an imminent attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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