Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader, fueling trader focus on coup attempt probabilities. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials of staging a soft coup through US truce negotiations and disputed appointments, while recent security measures—including the August 10 appointment of Hossein Taeb as Basij commander to expand neighborhood-level monitoring—signal regime efforts to consolidate control amid lingering protests and economic pressures. Factional rivalries involving the IRGC and President Masoud Pezeshkian, combined with leadership shuffles in the Supreme National Security Council, highlight ongoing instability that shapes market-implied probabilities around potential internal challenges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,117,676 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
11%
$2,117,676 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$76,450 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader, fueling trader focus on coup attempt probabilities. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials of staging a soft coup through US truce negotiations and disputed appointments, while recent security measures—including the August 10 appointment of Hossein Taeb as Basij commander to expand neighborhood-level monitoring—signal regime efforts to consolidate control amid lingering protests and economic pressures. Factional rivalries involving the IRGC and President Masoud Pezeshkian, combined with leadership shuffles in the Supreme National Security Council, highlight ongoing instability that shapes market-implied probabilities around potential internal challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,117,676Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader, fueling trader focus on coup attempt probabilities. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials of staging a soft coup through US truce negotiations and disputed appointments, while recent security measures—including the August 10 appointment of Hossein Taeb as Basij commander to expand neighborhood-level monitoring—signal regime efforts to consolidate control amid lingering protests and economic pressures. Factional rivalries involving the IRGC and President Masoud Pezeshkian, combined with leadership shuffles in the Supreme National Security Council, highlight ongoing instability that shapes market-implied probabilities around potential internal challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,117,676Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified following the 2026 war, Ali Khamenei's assassination, and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession as supreme leader, fueling trader focus on coup attempt probabilities. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials of staging a soft coup through US truce negotiations and disputed appointments, while recent security measures—including the August 10 appointment of Hossein Taeb as Basij commander to expand neighborhood-level monitoring—signal regime efforts to consolidate control amid lingering protests and economic pressures. Factional rivalries involving the IRGC and President Masoud Pezeshkian, combined with leadership shuffles in the Supreme National Security Council, highlight ongoing instability that shapes market-implied probabilities around potential internal challenges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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