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Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06

icon for Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06
Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06

Ralph Alvarado 97.6%

Gavin Solomon 3.5%

Adam Perez Arquette 3.3%

Greg Plucinski <1%

Polymarket

$24,419 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado 97.6%

Gavin Solomon 3.5%

Adam Perez Arquette 3.3%

Greg Plucinski <1%

Polymarket

$24,419 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado

$11,095 Vol.

93%

Gavin Solomon

$1,604 Vol.

4%

Adam Perez Arquette

$1,792 Vol.

3%

Greg Plucinski

$1,055 Vol.

1%

Ryan Dotson

$8,873 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary just five days away on May 19, trader consensus gives former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado a commanding 94.5% implied probability of winning the open seat vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, reflecting his strong polling lead, fundraising dominance, and high-profile endorsements. A May 4-7 1892 Polling survey showed Alvarado at 38% among likely voters, far ahead of Ryan Dotson (15%) and Greg Plucinski (8%), bolstered by President Trump's May 1 endorsement and backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and GOPAC Election Fund. Challengers' internal polls have not swayed markets amid fragmented opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$24,419
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary just five days away on May 19, trader consensus gives former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado a commanding 94.5% implied probability of winning the open seat vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, reflecting his strong polling lead, fundraising dominance, and high-profile endorsements. A May 4-7 1892 Polling survey showed Alvarado at 38% among likely voters, far ahead of Ryan Dotson (15%) and Greg Plucinski (8%), bolstered by President Trump's May 1 endorsement and backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and GOPAC Election Fund. Challengers' internal polls have not swayed markets amid fragmented opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could challenge this positioning, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$24,419
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ralph Alvarado" at 93%, followed by "Gavin Solomon" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" has generated $24.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" is "Ralph Alvarado" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Solomon" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do KY-06" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.