US authorities captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 during a military operation and unsealed a superseding indictment charging him with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged long-running trafficking networks. He and his wife remain in federal custody in Brooklyn after pleading not guilty, with trial set for June 2027 in the Southern District of New York. The narrow spread between leading outcomes for a lengthy sentence versus none reflects trader uncertainty over conviction prospects, possible plea negotiations, legal challenges to the capture and prosecution, sentencing ranges that include mandatory minimums of 20 years up to life, and potential diplomatic or political developments before resolution. Upcoming pretrial motions and any bilateral shifts could widen the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem pena de prisão 36%
60+ 35%
20–40 7.5%
40–60 6.9%
$665,490 Vol.
$665,490 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Sem pena de prisão
36%
<20
7%
20–40
8%
40–60
7%
60+
35%
Sem pena de prisão 36%
60+ 35%
20–40 7.5%
40–60 6.9%
$665,490 Vol.
$665,490 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Sem pena de prisão
$436,006 Vol.
36%
<20
$104,660 Vol.
7%
20–40
$55,697 Vol.
8%
40–60
$23,823 Vol.
7%
60+
$45,305 Vol.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US authorities captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 during a military operation and unsealed a superseding indictment charging him with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged long-running trafficking networks. He and his wife remain in federal custody in Brooklyn after pleading not guilty, with trial set for June 2027 in the Southern District of New York. The narrow spread between leading outcomes for a lengthy sentence versus none reflects trader uncertainty over conviction prospects, possible plea negotiations, legal challenges to the capture and prosecution, sentencing ranges that include mandatory minimums of 20 years up to life, and potential diplomatic or political developments before resolution. Upcoming pretrial motions and any bilateral shifts could widen the gap.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$665,490Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US authorities captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 during a military operation and unsealed a superseding indictment charging him with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged long-running trafficking networks. He and his wife remain in federal custody in Brooklyn after pleading not guilty, with trial set for June 2027 in the Southern District of New York. The narrow spread between leading outcomes for a lengthy sentence versus none reflects trader uncertainty over conviction prospects, possible plea negotiations, legal challenges to the capture and prosecution, sentencing ranges that include mandatory minimums of 20 years up to life, and potential diplomatic or political developments before resolution. Upcoming pretrial motions and any bilateral shifts could widen the gap.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$665,490Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...US authorities captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 during a military operation and unsealed a superseding indictment charging him with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses tied to alleged long-running trafficking networks. He and his wife remain in federal custody in Brooklyn after pleading not guilty, with trial set for June 2027 in the Southern District of New York. The narrow spread between leading outcomes for a lengthy sentence versus none reflects trader uncertainty over conviction prospects, possible plea negotiations, legal challenges to the capture and prosecution, sentencing ranges that include mandatory minimums of 20 years up to life, and potential diplomatic or political developments before resolution. Upcoming pretrial motions and any bilateral shifts could widen the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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