Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to face superseding narco-terrorism, narcotics, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York. The case carries statutory minimums of 20 years on key counts and potential life sentences if convicted on multiple specifications, yet traders assign the highest probability to no prison time amid unresolved questions of head-of-state immunity, the legality of the seizure, and possible plea negotiations or executive-branch interventions. With proceedings still in early stages and no trial date set, outcomes hinge on evidentiary rulings, sentencing guidelines applied to any convictions, and external political developments that could alter charging or disposition before resolution. The spread across sentence ranges reflects uncertainty over which charges survive and how federal judges weigh the facts once presented.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem pena de prisão 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 18.3%
<20 9.8%
$566,971 Vol.
$566,971 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Sem pena de prisão
35%
<20
10%
20–40
18%
40–60
6%
60+
25%
Sem pena de prisão 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 18.3%
<20 9.8%
$566,971 Vol.
$566,971 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Sem pena de prisão
$382,546 Vol.
35%
<20
$76,691 Vol.
10%
20–40
$50,298 Vol.
18%
40–60
$20,195 Vol.
6%
60+
$37,254 Vol.
25%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to face superseding narco-terrorism, narcotics, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York. The case carries statutory minimums of 20 years on key counts and potential life sentences if convicted on multiple specifications, yet traders assign the highest probability to no prison time amid unresolved questions of head-of-state immunity, the legality of the seizure, and possible plea negotiations or executive-branch interventions. With proceedings still in early stages and no trial date set, outcomes hinge on evidentiary rulings, sentencing guidelines applied to any convictions, and external political developments that could alter charging or disposition before resolution. The spread across sentence ranges reflects uncertainty over which charges survive and how federal judges weigh the facts once presented.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$566,971Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to face superseding narco-terrorism, narcotics, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York. The case carries statutory minimums of 20 years on key counts and potential life sentences if convicted on multiple specifications, yet traders assign the highest probability to no prison time amid unresolved questions of head-of-state immunity, the legality of the seizure, and possible plea negotiations or executive-branch interventions. With proceedings still in early stages and no trial date set, outcomes hinge on evidentiary rulings, sentencing guidelines applied to any convictions, and external political developments that could alter charging or disposition before resolution. The spread across sentence ranges reflects uncertainty over which charges survive and how federal judges weigh the facts once presented.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$566,971Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to face superseding narco-terrorism, narcotics, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York. The case carries statutory minimums of 20 years on key counts and potential life sentences if convicted on multiple specifications, yet traders assign the highest probability to no prison time amid unresolved questions of head-of-state immunity, the legality of the seizure, and possible plea negotiations or executive-branch interventions. With proceedings still in early stages and no trial date set, outcomes hinge on evidentiary rulings, sentencing guidelines applied to any convictions, and external political developments that could alter charging or disposition before resolution. The spread across sentence ranges reflects uncertainty over which charges survive and how federal judges weigh the facts once presented.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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