Lebanon’s fragmented sectarian political system and Hezbollah’s entrenched influence create the primary balance in trader assessments for Nawaf Salam remaining prime minister through 2026. Recent diplomatic efforts, including direct talks with Israel on ceasefire extensions and Israeli withdrawal timelines, alongside meetings with French President Macron and Syrian officials on border security, have reinforced his government’s focus on state control over weapons and international support for sovereignty. These steps have sustained his position amid fragile truces but face domestic pushback over disarmament plans and regional tensions. Scheduled negotiations, potential parliamentary pressures, and any escalation in security incidents could shift the closely divided outlook either toward continuity or an earlier transition.