**Democratic nominee Jamie Ager holds a 66.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 35.5%.** The shift stems primarily from incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards’ withdrawal in early August 2026 after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure over allegations of inappropriate conduct toward staffers. Republicans quickly nominated state Representative Jennifer Balkcom via district committee vote, but she entered with under three months until the November 3 general election. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer who won the Democratic primary decisively, has built a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million cash on hand. The district, which leaned Republican in recent cycles, shows tighter fundamentals in limited polling and race ratings that range from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Traders appear to price the late-candidate substitution, scandal fallout, and Ager’s resource advantage as tilting the contest toward Democrats in this western North Carolina seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNC-11 House Election Winner
NC-11 House Election Winner
$15,535 Vol.
$15,535 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
67%
Republican Party
36%
$15,535 Vol.
$15,535 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$7,147 Vol.
67%
Republican Party
$8,388 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Jamie Ager holds a 66.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 35.5%.**
The shift stems primarily from incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards’ withdrawal in early August 2026 after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure over allegations of inappropriate conduct toward staffers. Republicans quickly nominated state Representative Jennifer Balkcom via district committee vote, but she entered with under three months until the November 3 general election. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer who won the Democratic primary decisively, has built a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million cash on hand. The district, which leaned Republican in recent cycles, shows tighter fundamentals in limited polling and race ratings that range from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Traders appear to price the late-candidate substitution, scandal fallout, and Ager’s resource advantage as tilting the contest toward Democrats in this western North Carolina seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$15,535Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Jamie Ager holds a 66.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 35.5%.**
The shift stems primarily from incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards’ withdrawal in early August 2026 after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure over allegations of inappropriate conduct toward staffers. Republicans quickly nominated state Representative Jennifer Balkcom via district committee vote, but she entered with under three months until the November 3 general election. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer who won the Democratic primary decisively, has built a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million cash on hand. The district, which leaned Republican in recent cycles, shows tighter fundamentals in limited polling and race ratings that range from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Traders appear to price the late-candidate substitution, scandal fallout, and Ager’s resource advantage as tilting the contest toward Democrats in this western North Carolina seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,535Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee Jamie Ager holds a 66.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 35.5%.** The shift stems primarily from incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards’ withdrawal in early August 2026 after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure over allegations of inappropriate conduct toward staffers. Republicans quickly nominated state Representative Jennifer Balkcom via district committee vote, but she entered with under three months until the November 3 general election. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer who won the Democratic primary decisively, has built a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million cash on hand. The district, which leaned Republican in recent cycles, shows tighter fundamentals in limited polling and race ratings that range from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Traders appear to price the late-candidate substitution, scandal fallout, and Ager’s resource advantage as tilting the contest toward Democrats in this western North Carolina seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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