The near-certain trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency by May 31 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or qualifying health or incapacity events in the current administration. With the 119th Congress in session and no floor votes or committee actions underway on removal measures, structural timelines for either House impeachment followed by Senate trial or invocation of the 25th Amendment make rapid departure before the month’s end highly improbable. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further reinforce this view, as successful mid-term exits have required months of preparation and broad bipartisan support. Remaining pathways that could still shift the outcome include a sudden medical crisis triggering succession protocols or an unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary resignation, though both would need to unfold within the next two weeks to affect the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$1,615,767 Vol.
$1,615,767 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$1,615,767 Vol.
$1,615,767 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency by May 31 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or qualifying health or incapacity events in the current administration. With the 119th Congress in session and no floor votes or committee actions underway on removal measures, structural timelines for either House impeachment followed by Senate trial or invocation of the 25th Amendment make rapid departure before the month’s end highly improbable. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further reinforce this view, as successful mid-term exits have required months of preparation and broad bipartisan support. Remaining pathways that could still shift the outcome include a sudden medical crisis triggering succession protocols or an unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary resignation, though both would need to unfold within the next two weeks to affect the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,615,767Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency by May 31 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or qualifying health or incapacity events in the current administration. With the 119th Congress in session and no floor votes or committee actions underway on removal measures, structural timelines for either House impeachment followed by Senate trial or invocation of the 25th Amendment make rapid departure before the month’s end highly improbable. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further reinforce this view, as successful mid-term exits have required months of preparation and broad bipartisan support. Remaining pathways that could still shift the outcome include a sudden medical crisis triggering succession protocols or an unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary resignation, though both would need to unfold within the next two weeks to affect the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,615,767Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency by May 31 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or qualifying health or incapacity events in the current administration. With the 119th Congress in session and no floor votes or committee actions underway on removal measures, structural timelines for either House impeachment followed by Senate trial or invocation of the 25th Amendment make rapid departure before the month’s end highly improbable. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further reinforce this view, as successful mid-term exits have required months of preparation and broad bipartisan support. Remaining pathways that could still shift the outcome include a sudden medical crisis triggering succession protocols or an unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary resignation, though both would need to unfold within the next two weeks to affect the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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