India’s chairmanship of BRICS throughout 2026, including its hosting of the foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi and the scheduled leaders’ summit in September, creates strong institutional incentives for continuity among current members. Recent internal divisions over the Iran conflict surfaced during the May 2026 ministerial talks, yet the bloc issued a chair’s statement and advanced ongoing cooperation initiatives rather than triggering any withdrawal discussions. No full member has formally exited since the group’s founding, and none of the ten participating states currently faces the kind of domestic political shift that prompted Argentina to decline membership in 2024. Traders therefore assign high probability to sustained participation through year-end.