The high implied probability for a record-warm month in 2026 is driven by the accelerating transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% chance of emergence by May–July and a 96% likelihood of persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This natural variability is expected to amplify the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record and 2025 to second place, with early 2026 monthly anomalies near 1.47–1.48 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus points to a potentially strong or super El Niño peaking late in the year, raising the odds that late-2026 months will exceed prior peaks on datasets such as ERA5 or GISS. Ongoing multi-model runs and seasonal outlooks from the WMO and Copernicus will provide the next key updates traders are monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum mês de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?
Algum mês de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?
Sim
$136,757 Vol.
$136,757 Vol.
10 jan 2027
Sim
$136,757 Vol.
$136,757 Vol.
10 jan 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The high implied probability for a record-warm month in 2026 is driven by the accelerating transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% chance of emergence by May–July and a 96% likelihood of persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This natural variability is expected to amplify the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record and 2025 to second place, with early 2026 monthly anomalies near 1.47–1.48 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus points to a potentially strong or super El Niño peaking late in the year, raising the odds that late-2026 months will exceed prior peaks on datasets such as ERA5 or GISS. Ongoing multi-model runs and seasonal outlooks from the WMO and Copernicus will provide the next key updates traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$136,757Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The high implied probability for a record-warm month in 2026 is driven by the accelerating transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% chance of emergence by May–July and a 96% likelihood of persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This natural variability is expected to amplify the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record and 2025 to second place, with early 2026 monthly anomalies near 1.47–1.48 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus points to a potentially strong or super El Niño peaking late in the year, raising the odds that late-2026 months will exceed prior peaks on datasets such as ERA5 or GISS. Ongoing multi-model runs and seasonal outlooks from the WMO and Copernicus will provide the next key updates traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,757Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability for a record-warm month in 2026 is driven by the accelerating transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% chance of emergence by May–July and a 96% likelihood of persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This natural variability is expected to amplify the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has already pushed 2024 to the hottest year on record and 2025 to second place, with early 2026 monthly anomalies near 1.47–1.48 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus points to a potentially strong or super El Niño peaking late in the year, raising the odds that late-2026 months will exceed prior peaks on datasets such as ERA5 or GISS. Ongoing multi-model runs and seasonal outlooks from the WMO and Copernicus will provide the next key updates traders are monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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