Traders assign a 99.5% probability against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any scheduled bilateral summit and Russia's consistent stance that direct talks require prior alignment on core territorial and security demands. Zelenskyy's June 2026 open letter proposing negotiations in a neutral venue received an explicit rejection from Putin, who cited no purpose in meeting without those preconditions, while subsequent trilateral envoy discussions in early 2026 produced no breakthrough on disputed issues. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and stalled Russian advances, have not generated new diplomatic momentum or verifiable signals of an imminent leader-level encounter in the remaining weeks. A last-minute mediated breakthrough via external actors remains a theoretical possibility but faces substantial procedural and substantive barriers given the timeline.