Despite President Trump's recent threats labeling Cuba as a potential next target and an uptick in U.S. surveillance flights, anonymous administration officials confirmed on May 7 no imminent military action is planned, prioritizing sanctions over invasion. A May 1 executive order expanded penalties targeting Cuban regime repression and threats to U.S. national security, halting oil imports amid Havana's ties to Venezuela and Russia, while April diplomatic visits to Havana outlined proposals for political and economic reforms. With U.S. forces committed elsewhere like Iran and no major Cuban provocation, traders' 76% "No" consensus reflects preference for diplomatic pressure and economic isolation, though rhetoric keeps a 24% tail risk alive for escalation before year-end.