No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA Sentry systems carry impact trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 74%. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database show meter-scale impactors reaching this energy threshold only infrequently, typically on multi-year timescales rather than annually, while recent 2026 fireballs have remained well below the limit. Ongoing orbital refinements and close-approach monitoring confirm only distant, safe passages through year-end, with no catalogued objects meeting resolution criteria. Traders view the outcome as unlikely absent an undetected object emerging before December, though continuous surveillance updates could still shift assessments if new data appears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
26% вероятность
$312,629 Объем
$312,629 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
26% вероятность
$312,629 Объем
$312,629 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA Sentry systems carry impact trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 74%. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database show meter-scale impactors reaching this energy threshold only infrequently, typically on multi-year timescales rather than annually, while recent 2026 fireballs have remained well below the limit. Ongoing orbital refinements and close-approach monitoring confirm only distant, safe passages through year-end, with no catalogued objects meeting resolution criteria. Traders view the outcome as unlikely absent an undetected object emerging before December, though continuous surveillance updates could still shift assessments if new data appears.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$312,629Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA Sentry systems carry impact trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 74%. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database show meter-scale impactors reaching this energy threshold only infrequently, typically on multi-year timescales rather than annually, while recent 2026 fireballs have remained well below the limit. Ongoing orbital refinements and close-approach monitoring confirm only distant, safe passages through year-end, with no catalogued objects meeting resolution criteria. Traders view the outcome as unlikely absent an undetected object emerging before December, though continuous surveillance updates could still shift assessments if new data appears.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$312,629Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA Sentry systems carry impact trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 74%. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database show meter-scale impactors reaching this energy threshold only infrequently, typically on multi-year timescales rather than annually, while recent 2026 fireballs have remained well below the limit. Ongoing orbital refinements and close-approach monitoring confirm only distant, safe passages through year-end, with no catalogued objects meeting resolution criteria. Traders view the outcome as unlikely absent an undetected object emerging before December, though continuous surveillance updates could still shift assessments if new data appears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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