NASA's Sentry system shows no known near-Earth objects with even minimal impact probability for 2026, reflecting comprehensive tracking by CNEOS that rules out any predictable asteroid threats capable of a 5-kiloton airburst. Trader consensus at 69% for "No" aligns with historical bolide data, where globally detected events releasing 5kt or more occur roughly once every 1-2 years based on infrasound networks, implying a sub-50% yearly chance adjusted for half the year elapsed without qualifying incidents. A Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt—has heightened visibility via American Meteor Society reports, yet none met the energy threshold per official CNEOS estimates. Ongoing monitoring of close approaches like 2026 JH2 on May 18 underscores vigilance amid inherent detection gaps for small, untracked meteoroids.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$300,045 Объем
$300,045 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$300,045 Объем
$300,045 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Sentry system shows no known near-Earth objects with even minimal impact probability for 2026, reflecting comprehensive tracking by CNEOS that rules out any predictable asteroid threats capable of a 5-kiloton airburst. Trader consensus at 69% for "No" aligns with historical bolide data, where globally detected events releasing 5kt or more occur roughly once every 1-2 years based on infrasound networks, implying a sub-50% yearly chance adjusted for half the year elapsed without qualifying incidents. A Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt—has heightened visibility via American Meteor Society reports, yet none met the energy threshold per official CNEOS estimates. Ongoing monitoring of close approaches like 2026 JH2 on May 18 underscores vigilance amid inherent detection gaps for small, untracked meteoroids.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$300,045Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Sentry system shows no known near-Earth objects with even minimal impact probability for 2026, reflecting comprehensive tracking by CNEOS that rules out any predictable asteroid threats capable of a 5-kiloton airburst. Trader consensus at 69% for "No" aligns with historical bolide data, where globally detected events releasing 5kt or more occur roughly once every 1-2 years based on infrasound networks, implying a sub-50% yearly chance adjusted for half the year elapsed without qualifying incidents. A Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt—has heightened visibility via American Meteor Society reports, yet none met the energy threshold per official CNEOS estimates. Ongoing monitoring of close approaches like 2026 JH2 on May 18 underscores vigilance amid inherent detection gaps for small, untracked meteoroids.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$300,045Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Sentry system shows no known near-Earth objects with even minimal impact probability for 2026, reflecting comprehensive tracking by CNEOS that rules out any predictable asteroid threats capable of a 5-kiloton airburst. Trader consensus at 69% for "No" aligns with historical bolide data, where globally detected events releasing 5kt or more occur roughly once every 1-2 years based on infrasound networks, implying a sub-50% yearly chance adjusted for half the year elapsed without qualifying incidents. A Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt—has heightened visibility via American Meteor Society reports, yet none met the energy threshold per official CNEOS estimates. Ongoing monitoring of close approaches like 2026 JH2 on May 18 underscores vigilance amid inherent detection gaps for small, untracked meteoroids.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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