Recent August CPI data, showing core prices rising a hotter-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month while the annual rate eased to 2.4%, has kept trader focus on momentum in underlying inflation components for the September print. Persistent shelter costs and services prices continue to anchor the annual core rate near recent lows, yet elevated energy volatility and potential pass-through effects introduce upside risks to the monthly change. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place September core CPI YoY around 2.39%, aligning with economist expectations clustered near 2.4-2.5%, while the closely matched probabilities between those outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether the August monthly overshoot signals a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike. Key upcoming catalysts include labor market releases and any further commodity movements ahead of the mid-October BLS report, with market-implied odds capturing aggregated bets on whether the annual measure holds steady or ticks higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2,4% 29%
2,5% 21%
2,3% 19%
≥2,9% 10%
≤2,0%
5%
2,1%
5%
2,2%
8%
2,3%
19%
2,4%
29%
2,5%
21%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
8%
2,8%
5%
≥2,9%
10%
2,4% 29%
2,5% 21%
2,3% 19%
≥2,9% 10%
≤2,0%
5%
2,1%
5%
2,2%
8%
2,3%
19%
2,4%
29%
2,5%
21%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
8%
2,8%
5%
≥2,9%
10%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data, showing core prices rising a hotter-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month while the annual rate eased to 2.4%, has kept trader focus on momentum in underlying inflation components for the September print. Persistent shelter costs and services prices continue to anchor the annual core rate near recent lows, yet elevated energy volatility and potential pass-through effects introduce upside risks to the monthly change. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place September core CPI YoY around 2.39%, aligning with economist expectations clustered near 2.4-2.5%, while the closely matched probabilities between those outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether the August monthly overshoot signals a stall in disinflation or a temporary spike. Key upcoming catalysts include labor market releases and any further commodity movements ahead of the mid-October BLS report, with market-implied odds capturing aggregated bets on whether the annual measure holds steady or ticks higher.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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