Recent August CPI data, with headline inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI advancing 0.3%—exceeding the 0.2% consensus—has reinforced expectations for persistent price pressures into September, elevating implied probabilities for 0.4% and 0.5% monthly outcomes. Rising gasoline prices, which contributed over one-third of the August headline gain, alongside firmer shelter costs and higher consumer one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%, continue to anchor trader sentiment. These developments, against a backdrop of resilient labor market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish communications ahead of its September meeting, have shifted market-implied odds toward firmer readings while acknowledging risks from potential energy price moderation or seasonal factors.