Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” holds the strongest implied probability among traders for securing the most seats in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 National People’s Assembly election, reflecting its position as the dominant coalition in a fragmented field ahead of the vote. The market’s pricing follows the November 2025 general elections, which were annulled after a military coup ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló days before official results; that coalition had been positioned to contest both the presidency and legislative seats under the prior framework. Subsequent transitional arrangements, including a military-led charter barring interim leaders from running and setting new polls for December 2026, have left the same alliance as the best-organized grouping with broad party support. Smaller parties such as FLING, FREPASNA, and PS trail in odds due to limited national reach and the electoral system’s tilt toward larger coalitions, while the main opposition PAIGC remains sidelined from recent ballots following administrative rulings. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate nominations, and any shifts in military or ECOWAS engagement could still alter positioning before the vote.