Guinea-Bissau's presidential election, scheduled for December 6, 2026, follows the November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló after disputed voting in which both Embaló and opposition figure Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory. The junta annulled those results, installed a transitional government, and barred key military figures from running while overseeing preparations for fresh legislative and presidential contests. This instability, combined with the exclusion of major parties like the PAIGC in prior rounds and a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, has produced a fragmented market where no contender exceeds 14 percent. Embaló's modest lead reflects his prior incumbency and name recognition despite the coup, while Dias da Costa's position stems from his role as the endorsed opposition challenger in the annulled vote; remaining candidates draw support mainly from smaller parties or regional bases. Consolidation behind one outcome could hinge on pre-election alliances, junta positioning, or turnout dynamics among key voter groups in the coming months.