Tensions between Iran and the United States, along with related regional dynamics involving Israel, remain the central driver behind expectations for another airspace closure. Iranian authorities briefly shut most commercial routes in January 2026 amid heightened alerts over potential strikes, then imposed a longer partial closure through early April before partially reopening eastern corridors and limited airport operations on April 21. Commercial flights from Tehran resumed in early May under conditions of cautious normalcy, yet airlines continue routing around Iranian airspace due to lingering security concerns. Upcoming diplomatic signals, military posture changes, or escalation in proxy conflicts could trigger renewed restrictions within the coming weeks, particularly around key dates such as May 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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