**Recent forecasts for Chengdu point to a lowest temperature on August 27 in the mid-20s °C range, with models showing modest spread that aligns with the closely bunched market probabilities around 24–26 °C.** Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate overnight lows near 24–26 °C amid cloudy skies, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and light variable winds. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer nights. Key differentiating factors include the timing and intensity of precipitation: heavier or more prolonged rain increases cloud cover and humidity, which can raise minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C through reduced heat loss and latent heat release. Conversely, brief or lighter activity allows slightly greater cooling. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 22–24 °C, but the current post-sanfu transition—with lingering monsoon moisture and a slight seasonal cooling trend—supports the higher end of that range. Recent observations from August 25–26 already reflect this pattern, with nighttime readings holding in the mid-20s amid similar instability. Model consensus remains tight within a narrow band because resolution criteria focus on the single lowest hourly or official station reading rather than averages. Traders appear to price in this limited but real uncertainty from precipitation variability and local microclimate effects in the Sichuan Basin, where humidity and orographic influences amplify small forecast differences. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range further as the event approaches.