**Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F low (41% implied probability) for Miami on August 12, followed by 82–83°F (30.5%) and 78–79°F (21.5%).** These brackets align with current National Weather Service guidance and recent observations showing overnight minima running 2–4°F above the long-term August average of ~78°F. Persistent high humidity (70–80%), warm Gulf Stream waters, and limited nocturnal cooling from frequent afternoon convection have kept recent lows elevated, with an observed minimum of 82°F on August 9. Model consensus from the National Hurricane Center and local Miami office points to partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions overnight into August 12, with light easterly flow and dew points near 76–78°F limiting radiative cooling. A modest chance of showers could further suppress the drop. Historical analogs for mid-August under similar synoptic patterns rarely fall below 78°F, while the upper end of the distribution (84°F+) remains possible only if cloud cover and moisture increase markedly. No major tropical systems are expected to alter steering or moisture profiles in the next 24–48 hours, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 79–83°F. Updated NWS forecast discussions and evening model runs will provide the next high-impact data points for traders.