Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 8°C (19%), 9°C (23%), and 10°C (21%) for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid a persistent cool, unstable weather pattern over Île-de-France. Latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble runs project overnight minima near 9°C under partly cloudy conditions following recent showers, but key differentiators include nocturnal cloud cover—favoring 10°C with persistent overcast—and radiative cooling under clearer skies or light winds, potentially dipping to 8°C. Recent soil moisture from May 11–16 precipitation has dampened rapid cooling, aligning with historical mid-May lows averaging 9–10°C. Météo-France updates and May 16 observations will sharpen trader positioning before resolution at official Paris stations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Париже 17 мая?
Самая низкая температура в Париже 17 мая?
9°C 24%
10°C 21%
8°C 16%
12°C или выше 9%
2°C или ниже
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
7%
8°C
19%
9°C
24%
10°C
19%
11°C
4%
12°C или выше
13%
9°C 24%
10°C 21%
8°C 16%
12°C или выше 9%
2°C или ниже
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
7%
8°C
19%
9°C
24%
10°C
19%
11°C
4%
12°C или выше
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBTrader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 8°C (19%), 9°C (23%), and 10°C (21%) for Paris's lowest temperature on May 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid a persistent cool, unstable weather pattern over Île-de-France. Latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble runs project overnight minima near 9°C under partly cloudy conditions following recent showers, but key differentiators include nocturnal cloud cover—favoring 10°C with persistent overcast—and radiative cooling under clearer skies or light winds, potentially dipping to 8°C. Recent soil moisture from May 11–16 precipitation has dampened rapid cooling, aligning with historical mid-May lows averaging 9–10°C. Météo-France updates and May 16 observations will sharpen trader positioning before resolution at official Paris stations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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