Current forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration project a daily high of 27°C in Chengdu on May 16, supported by stable springtime conditions featuring moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits peak solar radiation. Ensemble outputs from global models show tight agreement around this value, consistent with mid-May climatology where temperatures above 28°C typically require stronger warm-air advection that is absent in current observations. Local station data through the morning further reinforce the consensus, leaving little room for upward revision. A rapid clearing of cloud decks or an unexpected shift in wind patterns could theoretically add 1–2°C, though the latest model guidance assigns negligible probability to such changes before sunset.