Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction indicate Jeddah may reach peak afternoon temperatures of 43–46 °C on May 18, driven by strong subsidence under a high-pressure ridge and light northwesterly winds that limit marine cooling from the Red Sea. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point suppression, which explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 46 °C (27 %) and 47 °C (20 %) while still pricing 44 °C and 45 °C near 18 % and 17 %. Historical May maxima in Jeddah average near 37 °C, so the current setup represents a significant positive anomaly; any strengthening of the thermal low or delayed sea-breeze onset could push readings into the upper 40s, consistent with the 16.5 % probability assigned to 48 °C or higher. Updated model runs on May 17 will clarify the precise peak.