Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models show Paris minimum temperatures on May 20 most likely settling between 9°C and 13°C, reflecting typical mid-May spring conditions under variable Atlantic flow. This narrow clustering of outcomes, with 16°C or higher holding a modest edge at 50 percent, stems from model spread in low-level cloud cover, wind direction, and overnight radiative cooling rates across the Paris basin. Historical climatology places average May lows near 9–10°C, yet day-to-day variability from passing troughs can shift readings by several degrees. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will tighten confidence as the 20 May verification window approaches.