Recent ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models point to a modest daytime peak of 14–15 °C at Amsterdam Schiphol on 18 May under a mix of broken stratocumulus and light southwesterly flow. Persistent cool northerly advection off the North Sea, combined with scattered showers and limited insolation, has kept readings 2–3 °C below the May climatological average of 16–18 °C. Resolution hinges on afternoon cloud breaks that could allow brief warming to 16 °C or prolonged low-level moisture that caps the maximum at 13 °C. KNMI hourly observations and the next model update cycle remain the key near-term catalysts traders are monitoring.