Current NOAA ensemble models for Miami project a May 20 minimum near 78–80°F, driven by typical subtropical high pressure, easterly trade winds, and moderate Gulf Stream sea-surface temperatures that limit overnight radiative cooling. However, forecast spread remains wide because small changes in low-level moisture, afternoon thunderstorm outflow, or wind mixing can shift the low by several degrees. A drier, clearer boundary layer would favor the 73°F-or-below outcome through enhanced longwave radiation loss, while increased cloud cover or tropical moisture advection could prevent temperatures from dropping below 92°F. With trader odds nearly even between these extremes, the market reflects genuine uncertainty in the 4-day guidance envelope rather than a settled consensus.