Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models show Seoul under a warm southerly flow with minimal frontal activity through mid-May, pushing overnight lows well above seasonal norms. Historical May minimums average 11–14 °C, yet current guidance for May 20 points to lows near 13–16 °C, with limited cooling expected overnight. This pattern underpins the market’s elevated implied probability for readings of 22 °C or higher while still leaving room for cooler outcomes if a late cold-air intrusion arrives. Key variables include the strength of the subtropical ridge and any last-minute model shifts in the 48-hour window before the minimum is recorded.