Current forecast models from the National Meteorological Center show Shanghai experiencing a transitional pattern over the next several days, with a strengthening easterly flow off the East China Sea and increasing low-level moisture supporting overnight lows potentially dipping to 15°C or below on May 20. This setup, combined with reduced radiative cooling under possible cloud cover, positions cooler readings as the market leader at 42.5% implied probability. Historical May climatology at Pudong station places typical minima between 17–20°C, yet recent model runs highlight spread in steering currents that could allow brief cooler advection. Upcoming high-resolution updates from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely refine whether the low settles near 20–22°C or trends cooler, directly influencing the 28% probability assigned to exactly 22°C.