Recent model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to an overnight minimum of 19°C in Shanghai on May 16, with overcast skies and light southeast winds below 12 km/h suppressing radiative cooling at the Pudong station. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical lows cluster between 17°C and 22°C under similar high-pressure ridges. Persistent warm advection above the seasonal 17–19°C baseline has locked trader consensus near 99% implied probability for exactly 19°C. A brief clearing overnight or unexpected frontal passage could still shift the reading to 18°C, though current conditions make such deviations unlikely before official hourly data finalize the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Шанхае 16 мая?
19°C 99.4%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,189 Объем
$43,189 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
19°C 99.4%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,189 Объем
$43,189 Объем
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to an overnight minimum of 19°C in Shanghai on May 16, with overcast skies and light southeast winds below 12 km/h suppressing radiative cooling at the Pudong station. This aligns with mid-May climatology, where historical lows cluster between 17°C and 22°C under similar high-pressure ridges. Persistent warm advection above the seasonal 17–19°C baseline has locked trader consensus near 99% implied probability for exactly 19°C. A brief clearing overnight or unexpected frontal passage could still shift the reading to 18°C, though current conditions make such deviations unlikely before official hourly data finalize the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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