Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs have converged on a Seoul daytime maximum of 24°C for May 16, 2026, driven by a strengthening high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and moderate southerly flow that keeps temperatures near the climatological May average. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s 99.9 % implied probability for exactly 24°C. Traders are pricing in minimal upside risk because official observations from the central Seoul station will determine resolution, and current guidance shows little potential for rapid afternoon warming. A modest northward shift in the ridge or localized urban-heat-island enhancement could still push readings to 25–26°C, though such deviations remain low-probability outcomes ahead of tonight’s closing observation window.