Current official forecasts from Environment Canada and global models place Toronto’s May 16 maximum near 22 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 60 percent chance of afternoon showers. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 20–22 °C because variable cloud cover is expected to limit solar heating while southwest winds enhance boundary-layer mixing that can either boost or suppress peak readings depending on shower timing. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on exact precipitation onset, creating the narrow spread among leading outcomes; any delay in showers or reduced cloud thickness could push readings toward the upper end of that range, whereas earlier or heavier rain would favor the lower side.