Numerical weather prediction models currently converge on a Chengdu daily maximum of 30–32 °C for May 18, reflecting a strengthening high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, reduced cloud cover, and enhanced daytime solar heating above the month’s 27–28 °C climatological average. Light northeasterly winds of roughly 8–10 km/h further limit boundary-layer mixing, allowing temperatures to climb while modest model spread in timing and intensity of any afternoon convection creates the observed tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 29–33 °C brackets. The next ensemble updates from global and regional centers, along with any revisions to boundary conditions, will be the primary near-term drivers of repricing.