Recent China Meteorological Administration guidance places Chengdu’s May 17 high at 28 °C under mostly cloudy skies, anchoring the tight market clustering around 28–30 °C. The Sichuan Basin’s topography and high humidity can suppress daytime mixing, keeping peaks near seasonal norms of 26–29 °C, while afternoon convective cells or brief clearing may add 1–2 °C of localized heating. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer temperatures and cloud timing, producing comparable implied probabilities for the three leading brackets. Traders therefore assign the greatest weight to outcomes that fall within the official forecast envelope, with resolution hinging on the final Shuangliu station observation tomorrow.