Recent Middle East conflict developments and associated energy price volatility represent the dominant catalyst anchoring trader consensus around a 3.0% 2026 global GDP outcome, with 32.9% implied probability. IMF projections held steady at 3% in September updates, citing resilience from AI-driven demand and policy buffers offsetting higher input costs, while World Bank June forecasts of 2.5% reflect sharper downside risks from sustained supply disruptions. Q2 quarterly growth slowed to 0.7% per recent FMI data, underscoring labor market and inflation pressures that could widen the range toward 2.9% or below. Key swing factors include the duration of energy shocks, potential monetary policy responses, and technology sector momentum, with probabilities spread across 3.1–3.3% outcomes reflecting ongoing uncertainty ahead of further quarterly releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
3.0% 32.9%
3.2% 19.4%
≤2.9% 18.2%
3.1% 9.5%
$34,383 ปริมาณ
$34,383 ปริมาณ
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
18%
3.0%
33%
3.1%
9%
3.2%
19%
3.3%
3%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
2%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
1%
3.0% 32.9%
3.2% 19.4%
≤2.9% 18.2%
3.1% 9.5%
$34,383 ปริมาณ
$34,383 ปริมาณ
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$6,332 ปริมาณ
18%
3.0%
$5,374 ปริมาณ
33%
3.1%
$6,146 ปริมาณ
9%
3.2%
$2,331 ปริมาณ
19%
3.3%
$4,039 ปริมาณ
3%
3.4%
$4,558 ปริมาณ
4%
3.5%
$3,602 ปริมาณ
2%
3.6%
$926 ปริมาณ
3%
3.7%+
$1,074 ปริมาณ
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict developments and associated energy price volatility represent the dominant catalyst anchoring trader consensus around a 3.0% 2026 global GDP outcome, with 32.9% implied probability. IMF projections held steady at 3% in September updates, citing resilience from AI-driven demand and policy buffers offsetting higher input costs, while World Bank June forecasts of 2.5% reflect sharper downside risks from sustained supply disruptions. Q2 quarterly growth slowed to 0.7% per recent FMI data, underscoring labor market and inflation pressures that could widen the range toward 2.9% or below. Key swing factors include the duration of energy shocks, potential monetary policy responses, and technology sector momentum, with probabilities spread across 3.1–3.3% outcomes reflecting ongoing uncertainty ahead of further quarterly releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,383วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict developments and associated energy price volatility represent the dominant catalyst anchoring trader consensus around a 3.0% 2026 global GDP outcome, with 32.9% implied probability. IMF projections held steady at 3% in September updates, citing resilience from AI-driven demand and policy buffers offsetting higher input costs, while World Bank June forecasts of 2.5% reflect sharper downside risks from sustained supply disruptions. Q2 quarterly growth slowed to 0.7% per recent FMI data, underscoring labor market and inflation pressures that could widen the range toward 2.9% or below. Key swing factors include the duration of energy shocks, potential monetary policy responses, and technology sector momentum, with probabilities spread across 3.1–3.3% outcomes reflecting ongoing uncertainty ahead of further quarterly releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,383วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 15, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict developments and associated energy price volatility represent the dominant catalyst anchoring trader consensus around a 3.0% 2026 global GDP outcome, with 32.9% implied probability. IMF projections held steady at 3% in September updates, citing resilience from AI-driven demand and policy buffers offsetting higher input costs, while World Bank June forecasts of 2.5% reflect sharper downside risks from sustained supply disruptions. Q2 quarterly growth slowed to 0.7% per recent FMI data, underscoring labor market and inflation pressures that could widen the range toward 2.9% or below. Key swing factors include the duration of energy shocks, potential monetary policy responses, and technology sector momentum, with probabilities spread across 3.1–3.3% outcomes reflecting ongoing uncertainty ahead of further quarterly releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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