High Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 ปริมาณ
$21,009 ปริมาณ
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
38%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 ปริมาณ
$21,009 ปริมาณ
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,390 ปริมาณ
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 ปริมาณ
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 ปริมาณ
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 ปริมาณ
38%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 ปริมาณ
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 ปริมาณ
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,009วันสิ้นสุด
May 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,009วันสิ้นสุด
May 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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