Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June PCE at 3.7% and July CPI at 3.36% year-over-year amid energy supply shocks and prior tariff effects, forms the main driver behind the 55.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026, yet July FOMC minutes revealed growing support among participants for tightening if price pressures persist, shifting from earlier expectations of holds or cuts. Stable labor conditions at 4.1% unemployment and resilient growth have reinforced this hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming PCE and CPI releases, which will shape whether trader consensus tilts further toward action before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
56% โอกาส
$7,877,136 ปริมาณ
$7,877,136 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
ใช่
56% โอกาส
$7,877,136 ปริมาณ
$7,877,136 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June PCE at 3.7% and July CPI at 3.36% year-over-year amid energy supply shocks and prior tariff effects, forms the main driver behind the 55.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026, yet July FOMC minutes revealed growing support among participants for tightening if price pressures persist, shifting from earlier expectations of holds or cuts. Stable labor conditions at 4.1% unemployment and resilient growth have reinforced this hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming PCE and CPI releases, which will shape whether trader consensus tilts further toward action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,877,136วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June PCE at 3.7% and July CPI at 3.36% year-over-year amid energy supply shocks and prior tariff effects, forms the main driver behind the 55.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026, yet July FOMC minutes revealed growing support among participants for tightening if price pressures persist, shifting from earlier expectations of holds or cuts. Stable labor conditions at 4.1% unemployment and resilient growth have reinforced this hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming PCE and CPI releases, which will shape whether trader consensus tilts further toward action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,877,136วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June PCE at 3.7% and July CPI at 3.36% year-over-year amid energy supply shocks and prior tariff effects, forms the main driver behind the 55.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026, yet July FOMC minutes revealed growing support among participants for tightening if price pressures persist, shifting from earlier expectations of holds or cuts. Stable labor conditions at 4.1% unemployment and resilient growth have reinforced this hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming PCE and CPI releases, which will shape whether trader consensus tilts further toward action before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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