The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$86,682 ปริมาณ
$86,682 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$86,682 ปริมาณ
$86,682 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
$2,789 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$6,048 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$5,733 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$11,680 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$10,521 ปริมาณ
Yes
18°C
$11,659 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$9,332 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$12,584 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$6,279 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$4,519 ปริมาณ
No
23°C or higher
$5,537 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,682วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$86,682วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: Yes
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: Yes
The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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